SavBAT 2 FAQS - producing a hypothetical abatement forecast

What is a hypothetical abatement forecast?

You might be thinking of undertaking a savanna burning methodology project in a particular area, but are not sure how viable the project would be and the emissions it is likely to abate. In this case you can use SavBAT 2.1 to forecast the emissions that area is likely to abate under a range of different fire patterns.

SavBAT 2.1 does this by:

  • firstly accessing the fire history (from NAFI) and vegetation fuel types (from either a user-uploaded map or from a stored vegetation map clipped to a user-uploaded boundary) to calculate the emissions for the baseline you want

  • then calculating the emissions abated in the area for a hypothetical future year under a range of different fire managements compared to that baseline.

These different fire patterns cover different relative percentages of area burnt in the early dry season (EDS) and late dry season (LDS). They range in 10% increments covering all combinations of EDS and LDS burning (e.g. 20% burnt in the EDS and 40% burnt in the LDS etc.)

This hypothetical future year is a general year that can be used to represent all future years in the project. As SavBAT 2.1 does not know the exact location of the fire scars in relation to the vegetation fuel types of the area in this future year, it assumes that fires in each season are evenly spread across all vegetation types in the area. Also, as SavBAT 2.1 does not know the 5 year fire history it would normally use to calculate grassy fuel loads that applies to this future year, it uses the most recently available 5 year fire history for the area.

Because these approximations are used in the forecasts, the forecasts themselves will only be approximate and will differ from the actual abatement achieved. Also, if you choose to upload a project boundary or an un-validated vegetation map image, this will add to the uncertainty of the forecast.

For more information on the hypothetical abatement forecast see pages 18-25 of the the SavBAT 2.1 User Manual.